Predictive Patterns of Sex Offenders; Crime Trajectory Analysis Prior to the First Sex Offence.

Abstract

The main aim of the present study is predicting the occurrence of a sex offence based on crime frequency and types of crime. Therefore, the two following hypotheses were tested; H1: Sex offenders do not have distinctive criminal trajectories based on crime frequency prior to their first sex offence compared with age-matched nonsex offenders, and H2; Types of crimes can predict the likelihood of a subsequent sex offence. Using longitudinal criminal career data and conducting group based trajectory modelling (N=4142) and a multinomial probit regression analysis (N=4130) induced the following conclusion; while sex offenders do not seem to be different from nonsex offenders based on their crime frequency up to the first sex offence, it is possible to predict the impact of committing a property offence on the likelihood of committing a subsequent sex offence.