Abstract
This thesis investigates the deployment potential of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) under stringent climate policy targets and the possible macro-economic implications. First, we look at the use of CCS in scenarios of different Energy-Economy and Integrated Assessment Models. These scenarios look at two climate policy targets and different assumptions
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regarding the availability of intermittent renewables for power production and the primary bio-energy supply. The results show that, if assumed available, CCS played an important role in the mitigation strategies of all models, although the projected deployment levels vary widely across the models. Cumulative CO2 capture projections during the 21st century range from about 600 to 3050 GtCO2 across all models and investigated scenarios (i.e. 15-80 times current emission levels). Interestingly, models often project increasing amounts of CO2 capture towards the end of this century, which implies that CCS is considered attractive beyond 2100 by many models. In the second chapter, we look at results of a single energy-system simulation model (TIMER) to analyse CCS deployment as a function of uncertainty in techno-economic parameters. For this, we collected a wide range of data from the existing literature regarding the performance and investment cost of power plants and CO2 capture units, transport and storage cost as well as storage capacity estimates. For this uncertainty analysis we run the model for the full uncertainty range of each individual parameter in combination with different fossil fuel price developments. Furthermore, we test the combined uncertainty of plant performance and investment, transport and storage cost on a medium fossil fuel price level. To reflect stringent climate policy all scenarios assumed a carbon price which rises to 165 $2005/tCO2 in 2025 and stays constant over the remaining study horizon (2050). CCS deployment was shown to be strongly dependent on the uncertainty in the cost and performance parameters looked at. The combined uncertainty of the cost and performance parameters resulted in a range of 8-244 GtCO2 captured cumulatively from power production until 2050. The most important individual uncertainty was the investment cost for advanced power plants with and without CCS. The impact of the uncertainty range for CCS storage capacity was found to be small until 2050. However, under pessimistic storage capacity assumptions the impact of this parameter could become more severe when looking at a longer time horizon, as in this scenario analysis a few regions (including China) already used up a large part of their storage capacity until 2050. Subsequently, we looked at the macro-economic impacts of two mitigation strategies with and without CCS for the power sector of Western Europe and The Netherlands. The scenarios without CCS relied more on other low-carbon technologies, including renewables. For both regions, we calculate the difference in impacts on employment, Gross Value Added (GVA) and import dependency between the two strategies using a Multi-Regional Input-Output Model (MRIO). Depending on whether CCS is included or excluded different sectors will increase or decrease production. The differences for employment and GVA could be notable for specific sectors such as construction or sectors providing fuel inputs if these are produced domestically. Results can differ depending on the regional scope and the precise composition of the portfolio including CCS and the alternative scenario. In both the Netherlands and Western Europe import dependency was found to be higher if CCS is part of the mitigation portfolio. The economy wide impacts on GVA and employment need to be investigated further with more dynamic macro-economic models to better understand the impact of lower cost when CCS is included in the mitigation portfolio.
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