Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2emissions from the global steel and cement industries

Abstract

This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO2emissions. Without climate policy, the future projections based on the SSP2 scenario show a rapid increase in the consumption of steel and cement over the next few decades, after which demand levels are projected to stabilize. This implies that over the scenario period, CO2emissions are projected to peak in the next decades followed by a decrease below 2010 levels in 2050. There is considerable scope to mitigate CO2emissions from steel and cement industries, leading to resp. 80-90% and 40-80% reduction below 2010 in 2050 for a high carbon tax of 100 $/tCO2+ 4%pa depending on the availability of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS).