Yielding a fruitful harvest: Advanced methods and analysis of regional potentials for sustainable biomass value chains interlinked with environmental and land use impacts of agricultural intensification

Abstract

To reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, alternative resources for energy and materials need to be found. Biomass has versatile applications, including the production of heat, electricity, liquid fuels, chemicals and materials. But although biomass is widely considered an important option for substituting fossil fuels and reducing GHG emissions, the recent rapid increase in global biomass production for modern bioenergy and biomaterial purposes has also raised concerns about the role biomass can actually play in mitigating climate change. One of the main topics of concern is unwanted land use change (LUC), and especially indirect lands use change (ILUC). One important measure to mitigate ILUC is agricultural intensification. This thesis assessed the regional potentials, the environmental impacts and economic performance of different pathways for agricultural intensification, biomass production and biomass use. The regional possibilities for agricultural intensification were addressed by investigating historical yield developments and their driving factors for various crops and livestock products in seven countries in different world regions, and by discussing how these findings can be used to improve yield projections in biomass potential studies. In addition, the thesis performed a case study on the province of Lublin in East Poland to assess the potentials for agricultural intensification, and to quantify how much miscanthus-based ethanol can be produced in this region with a low risk of causing ILUC. The environmental impacts of agricultural intensification and biomass production and use were first addressed by examining two pathways for intensification of cattle production systems and comparing the impacts of these two pathways on farm gate GHG emissions, land occupation and LUC-related emissions in nine world regions. Second, the thesis assessed how the implementation of agricultural intensification influences the GHG balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production in Lublin province. It specifically investigated the effects of three pathways for agricultural intensification in terms of sustainability. Third, the thesis analyzed the level of GHG emissions avoided by biomass value chains for heat, power, fuels and materials compared to their fossil reference. The economic performance of biomass value chains was addressed by assessing their current and long-term levelized production costs and comparing their greenhouse gas abatement costs. It is found that often significant regional possibilities exist for agricultural intensification. Realizing these potentials would contribute to making land available for large scale biomass production while mitigating ILUC. In case ILUC is prevented, biomass value chains for energy and materials can significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to fossil-based energy and materials. However, the agricultural intensification pathway in terms of sustainability is found to have a significant impact on the results and sustainable intensification is important to optimize the GHG balance and other environmental impacts of the biomass and agricultural sector. While biomass value chains generally avoid emissions, most value chains are not cost competitive compared to their fossil reference. Stimulation of and investments in advanced conversion technologies are considered vital for future economically feasible production of bioenergy and biomaterials on a large scale.