Semtex in the hand is worth two dirty bombs in the bush.The historical relation between explosive technology and terrorism

Abstract

By discussing the relation between terrorism and technology most researchers are concerned with the threat of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) terrorism. However, despite the enormous amount of publications on its destructive potential, CBRN terrorism remains (with very few exceptions) only a potential threat. Rather, most terrorist groups have been relying on conventional firearms and explosives to execute attacks. Thus, the majority of researchers concerned with terrorist weaponry adopt an “innovation-centered” perspective, which explicitly focuses on novel innovations and their instant impact on society.

However, rather than focusing on the (possible) terrorist usage of CBRN weaponry, this study aims to analyze the relation between terrorism and technology on basis of a “use-centered” approach, which focuses on the historical relation between weapon technology and terrorism in terms of frequent and successful usage of explosive technologies by terrorist groups. Specifically, I will connect the life cycles of five conventional explosive technologies with their usage by terrorist groups. By analyzing the development and distribution as well as the terrorist acquisition and adaption of these explosives, I aim to answer the following research questions in a set of nine case studies:

(1) At what stage in the life cycles of the selected explosive technologies did terrorist groups start to, frequently and successfully, use these technologies? (2) Through which means did terrorist groups acquire a certain explosive technology and (3) how did they acquire the (tacit and explicit) knowledge to successfully use these technologies?

On basis of this three-staged analysis, I further aim to identify a (non-exhaustive) catalogue of influences on the decision making process of terrorist groups to use a certain explosive technology in attacks. Finally, I will critically discuss the possibility of implementing the outcomes of this study into quantitative frameworks of anticipating future behavior of terrorist groups.