Estimation of Non-Registered Usual Residents in the Netherlands, ultimo September 2010

Abstract

From the 2011 Census round, the population “usual residents” is defined as those who have lived or intend to live for a period of more than 12 months in their place of usual residence. Most of the register-based statistics describe the total number of registered persons in e.g. a population register at a particular moment or period. To estimate the non-registered population of usual residents, capture – recapture methods are available. By making a three list estimation, making restrictions to one day for the period-based registers and a short period for the event-based register, applying a stringent linkage method and deletion of erroneous records, most of the assumptions of the capture – recapture method are met. However, to estimate the number of usual residents, we need to divide the estimated total number of persons into those who stay longer than a year in The Netherlands and those who did not. In this paper we present a method to estimate the number of usual residents even though the residence duration is observed in only one of the lists. We apply the method to Dutch empirical data.