Hydrogen versus Electric: The Dynamics of Niches and Expectations

Abstract

Facing the challenge to realize a more sustainable automotive industry, car manufacturers are currently developing alternatives to the dominant gasoline car. Both the battery electric and the hydrogen vehicle are considered promising, but since widespread diffusion of either alternative has not yet taken place the competition between these emerging technological trajectories is for a large part based on the expectations of car manufacturers. To explain the dynamics of these expectations this study draws on the literature on niches, which describes a process in which expectations can aggregate from a local to a global niche level. Press statements derived from car magazines are used as indicators of manufacturers’ expectations and are analyzed in both quantitative and qualitative terms; the quantitative analysis focuses on shifts in the industry’s attention for alternative vehicles, while the qualitative analysis provides insight in the actual content of the expectations. The results show that since 1990 the attention has shifted between electric and hydrogen technologies. Between 1990 and approximately 1997 electric technologies were at the center of attention, after which the hydrogen vehicle attracted the interest of the automotive industry. After 2006, however, the battery electric vehicle reestablished itself as the dominant alternative technology. Finally, it is concluded that there is only room for one technological trajectory at the global niche level.